Mutation: Difference between revisions

First and foremost, mutations are rare.  They happen on average about once in every 10 million duplications of the DNA molecule (10^7, a one followed by 7 zeroes). The problem comes when you need a series of related mutations to occur. The odds of getting two mutations that are related to one another is the product of their separate probabilities, one in 10^7 x 10^7 or 10^14, a one followed by 14 zeroes, a hundred trillion! That would barely change the shape of a fly wing for example, this is a long way from a truly new structure, and certainly a long ways off from turning the fly into anything other than a fly.

Now since evolution needs the consistency of related mutations to work at all, what are the odds of getting three related mutations? That is one in a billion trillion, or 10^21. Suddenly the ocean isn't big enough to hold enough bacteria to make that chance likely. You can quickly tell that at just three related mutations, evolution via mutations as its mechanism to produce ape to man changes is woefully inadequate.