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→Problems with Mutations
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First and foremost mutations are rare, they happen on average about once in every 10 million duplications of the DNA molecule (10^7, a one followed by 7 zeroes). The problem comes when you need a series of related mutations to occur. The odds of getting two mutations that are related to one another is the product of seperate probabilities, one in 10^7 x 10^7 or 10^14, a one followed by 14 zeroes, a hundred trillion! That would barely change the shape of a fly wing for example, this is a long way from a truely new structure, and certainly a long ways off from turning the fly into anything other than a fly. | First and foremost mutations are rare, they happen on average about once in every 10 million duplications of the DNA molecule (10^7, a one followed by 7 zeroes). The problem comes when you need a series of related mutations to occur. The odds of getting two mutations that are related to one another is the product of seperate probabilities, one in 10^7 x 10^7 or 10^14, a one followed by 14 zeroes, a hundred trillion! That would barely change the shape of a fly wing for example, this is a long way from a truely new structure, and certainly a long ways off from turning the fly into anything other than a fly. | ||
Now since evolution needs the consistency of related mutations to even work, what are the odds of getting 3 related mutations? That is one in a billion trillion, or 10^21. Suddenly the ocean isn't big enough to hold enough bacteria to make that chance likely | Now since evolution needs the consistency of related mutations to even work, what are the odds of getting 3 related mutations? That is one in a billion trillion, or 10^21. Suddenly the ocean isn't big enough to hold enough bacteria to make that chance likely. | ||
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